A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
